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The estimated value depends on the model used and the data that inform it. R 0 is estimated from data collected in the field and entered into mathematical models. The higher the value of R 0, the faster an epidemic will progress. If R 0 is less than 1, the infection will spread only slowly, and it will eventually die out. If the average R 0 in the population is greater than 1, the infection will spread exponentially. So if one person develops the infection and passes it on to two others, the R 0 is 2. The basic reproduction number is defined as the number of cases that are expected to occur on average in a homogeneous population as a result of infection by a single individual, when the population is susceptible at the start of an epidemic, before widespread immunity starts to develop and before any attempt has been made at immunization. We include some definitions in the box at the end.

GREATER THAN LESS THAN EQUAL TO DIE HOW TO

And it is important to know how to interpret it. The figure to which he was referring is the basic reproduction number (or reproductive ratio) of a virus, called R 0 (R nought or R zero). On 30 March 2020, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Officer, gave an indication of how this decision may be guided, saying that Britain’s lockdown was having a “very big effect” on the R 0, bringing it down “below one”. With the peak of the pandemic yet to arrive in the UK, it seems certain that the current measures will continue. The UK Government is regularly reviewing the current lockdown measures, as it is required to do every 3 weeks, by law. On behalf of the Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service TeamĬentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences Jeffrey K Aronson, Jon Brassey, Kamal R Mahtani “When will it be over?”: An introduction to viral reproduction numbers, R0 and Re

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